AN intensifying El Niño could become the strongest recorded since modern monitoring began, threatening to drive more extreme weather and push global temperatures higher into 2027, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Thursday.
The United Nations weather agency said its latest forecasts showed an almost 100 per cent probability that El Niño would persist through February 2027, driven by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the phenomenon was developing at an unprecedented scale.
"If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades," Saulo told a press conference in Geneva.
The WMO said this was the first time it had expressed such a high degree of certainty that El Niño would persist for the period covered by its forecast.
A very strong El Niño can significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns across the world, increasing the risk of extreme weather events, including typhoons, droughts and intense rainfall.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the phenomenon was intensifying as the planet continued to warm.
"El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up," he said.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, typically caused by weakening trade winds.
It occurs every two to seven years and usually lasts up to 12 months, but can have far-reaching effects on global weather, including severe rainfall and drought across parts of Latin America.
The current El Niño has already affected agricultural commodities in tropical regions and contributed to a severe food crisis across Central America's Dry Corridor, according to the WMO.
The agency said the phenomenon was expected to peak towards the end of this year, but its effects would continue into 2027, contributing to higher global temperatures next year.
Saulo said the WMO was strengthening preparedness and early-warning efforts as governments and vulnerable sectors brace for potentially more severe weather conditions.
"WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources," she said. - September 3, 2026
